What is going on in the market because you need to know

Posted by Leslie Bauer on Thursday, May 8th, 2008 at 10:14pm.

Paragon Market Report: San Francisco Home Sales 1

st Quarter 2008 vs. 1st Quarter 2007

Comparing 1st Qtr 08 to 1st Qtr 07, the number of home sold in San Francisco decreased about 27%, with properties below $1,000,000—condos in particular—showing the largest drop. The lower end of the SF housing market—to a large degree fueled by first-time buyers—has been the most affected by market upheaval and new financing conditions. The middle price range, $1,000,000 to $1,999,999, showed a much smaller decrease, while sales of $2,000,000 and above actually increased. See charts on later pages.

Median days-on-market for all houses and condos sold barely changed (37 days in 07 vs. 36 in 08), but for homes on the market, days-on-market increased by approximately 20 days (60 - 69 days in 07 vs. 80 - 89 in 08)—i.e., the homes selling are generally selling relatively quickly, but those not selling are staying on the market for longer periods of time (and so price reductions are increasing too). The quicker a home sells, the higher the sales price as a percentage of list price: those selling within 30 days average 4 - 7% more than those which do not. The below graph does not factor in price reductions, which would significantly increase the difference.

Average % of Sale Price to List Price (SP/LP) by Days-on-Market, First Quarter 2008:

0-30 Days

31-60 Days

61-90 Days

91-120 Days

120+ Days

No. of Listings






% of Sales






Avg % SP/LP






The number of homes for sale has gone up about 20%, and the months-supply-of-inventory has increased by 1 month (3.2 vs. 2.2 months). The median sales price of all homes sold increased by about 3%. San Francisco—though down from its peak in May 07—is the only Bay Area County still showing median price increases year over year. (Some counties have shown declines in excess of 40%.)

As shown in subsequent charts, city-wide median numbers mask dramatic differences between different SF neighborhoods. Some areas still feature low inventory, high demand, multiple offers and quick sales; others are on the opposite end of the spectrum.


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