San Francisco: BUYERS WANTED Newsletter

Posted by Leslie Bauer on Wednesday, January 14th, 2009 at 11:21am.

2008 SF Largest Sales
by Neighborhood

BR = # of Bedrooms
H = House, C = Condo

Pacific Hghts 8BR H $18,000,000  
Sea Cliff 6BR H $14,500,000 *
Russian Hill 4BR H $9,500,000 *
SOMA 4BR C $8,975,000 *
Russian Hill 4BR C $6,700,000  
Nob Hill 3BR H $6,400,000  
Noe Valley 5BR H $5,818,000  
Clarendon 4BR H $5,625,000 *
St Francis Wd 5BR H $5,400,000 *
Marina 4BR H $4,700,000 *
Nob Hill 2BR C $4,625,000  
South Beach 3BR C $3,500,000  
Lake District 5BR H  $3,100,000  
Financial Dist 2BR C  $3,020,000  
Ashbury Hts 3BR H $2,850,000  
Glen Park 4BR H $2,800,000  
Richmond 4BR H $2,420,000
Mission Bay 2BR C  $2,350,000  
North Beach 3BR H  $2,250,000  
Bernal Hts 4BR H $2,150,000  
N. Panhandle 4BR H  $2,125,000  
Balboa Ter 5BR H $2,100,000  
Alamo Sq 4BR H $2,050,000  
Sunset 4BR H  $1,900,000  
Hayes Valley 3BR H $1,875,000  
W. Portal 5BR H $1,850,000  
Parkside 5BR H $1,555,000  
Mission 4BR H $1,509,000  
Excelsior 4BR H


Miraloma 4BR H $1,275,000  
Bayview 3BR H $710,000  
Ingleside 4BR H $685,000  

2008 sales reported by 12/10/08

* Final list price, confidential sale

2008 Home Sales by Price

$500,000 & under 559
$501,000 - $1m 2474
$1,001,000 - $2m                895
$2,001,000 – $5m 250
$5,001,000 - $10m 26
Over $10,000,000 3

2008 sales reported by 12/12/08

Paragon Outperforms Market

In November, Paragon was the #2 brokerage in SF by dollar volume of sales—with the highest average sales price of any brokerage in the top 10—after less than 5 years in business.


San Francisco Shifts to a "Buyer's Market"

SF is one of the world’s most desirable places to live and still has the “strongest economy in the state*,” but with September’s deterioration of financial markets, the real estate market underwent a seismic shift. Sales and median prices declined dramatically. Price reductions, time on market, and the months-supply of homes for sale soared. Where the market was strongest—generally the high end—activity dropped precipitately. Areas with the highest foreclosure rates—in the less affluent southeast quadrant of the city—saw large increases in sales. Some offers are being accepted well below asking price. It is too early to say exactly what this means for 2009: between macro-economic conditions and the holiday season, many neighborhoods had too few sales for meaningful statistics. And medians and averages are always generalities. Still, after years of being mostly a seller’s market—high demand, low supply, multiple offers over asking price—SF has made the transition to a buyer’s market—more choice, more negotiation, lower prices and very low interest rates. This trend may well spark an upswing in sales in 09.

Comparing November 2008 with November 2007, SF house sales declined by 26%, condos by 55%, TICs by 74%, and 2-4 unit buildings by 65%. This reflects a market in shock from national economic conditions.

Comparing November 2008 with November 2007, the average sales price as a percentage of list price for houses accepting offers within 30 days of going on market declined from 104.1% to 99.8%. Though still high by national standards, this is the first time in years that the average sales price has been below average list price for houses selling quickly in SF.

* Beacon Economics, October 2008 Forecast


San Francisco Median Home Prices: Sold & Pending Sale

  Sold Nov-07 Sold Nov-08 Pending 12-8-08
SF All Houses $928,000 $780,000 $629,000
SF All Condos $778,000 $702,000 $645,000
SF All TICs $600,000 $551,000 $549,000

Median sales prices decline for 2 reasons: decreases in value and changes in buying patterns towards lower priced homes. The first reason applies, to some degree, to all 3 property types above, but the huge drop in median price for houses also reflects a large decrease in higher-end home sales and a large increase in sales of less expensive homes. For example, comparing 11/08 to 11/07, house sales in the affluent Realtor Districts 5 (Noe, Castro, Haight) and 7 (Pacific Hghts, Marina) decreased 65%, while house sales in District 10 (Bayview, Excelsior) —with the highest foreclosure rate in SF—increased 41%.

Median Price & Dollar per Square Foot by Neighborhood

The charts below compare median sales prices and average dollars per square foot for the 1st half of 2007—typically considered the peak of the market—with sales occurring since September 15, 2008, and then with homes pending sale as reported to MLS by 12/12/08. For pending sales, the calculations are based upon list price, since final sales prices were unknown. We see a general decline in both median price and dollar per square foot. These neighborhoods were chosen because there were sufficient sales for statistical analysis.

  2007 2008 Pending
Noe Valley House $1,385,000 $1,260,000 $1,229,000
Pacific/Presidio Hts Condo 1,115,000 927,500 N/A
Richmond District House 1,000,000 960,000 840,500
Noe/Castro Valleys Condo 903,500 855,000 825,000
South Beach Condo 837,500 660,000 N/A
Sunset/Parkside House 832,000 770,000 699,000
Ingleside/Oceanvw House 700,000 535,000 500,000
Bayview/Excelsior House 690,000 538,000 549,000
SOMA Condo 679,500 700,000 590,000

Dollar per Square Foot Analysis by Neighborhood
    2007 2008 Pending
South Beach (up to $2m) Condo $841/sq.ft. $782/sq.ft. N/A
Pacific/Presidio Hts Condo $830/sq.ft. $731/sq.ft. N/A
SOMA (up to $2m) Condo $715/sq.ft. $654/sq.ft. $591/sq.ft.
Hayes Vly/NOPA Condo $664/sq.ft. $554/sq.ft. N/A
Bernal Hghts House $629/sq.ft. $571/sq.ft. $560/sq.ft.
Sunset/Parkside House $605/sq.ft. $551/sq.ft. $535/sq.ft.
Richmond District House $583/sq.ft. $555/sq.ft. $534/sq.ft.
Bayview/Excelsior House $526/sq.ft. $439/sq.ft. $420/sq.ft.
Ingleside/Oceanvw House $487/sq.ft. $456/sq.ft. $451/sq.ft.

Foreclosure Sales Rates in the Bay Area

San Francisco continues to have the lowest foreclosure sales rate of any county in the Bay Area—less than half the rate of the second lowest county. According to DataQuick, in November 08, foreclosure sales in SF constituted 10% of property resale activity. The rates for the other 8 counties were as follows: San Mateo at 21.8%; Marin at 22.6%; Santa Clara at 38.9%;  Napa at 40.8%; Alameda at 44.4%; Sonoma at 51.6%; Contra Costa at 63% and Solano County at 63.6%.

60% of all SF foreclosure sales are occurring in just 3 of its 24 zip codes—94134, 94124 & 94112—all in the city’s SE quadrant (Bayview-Excelsior-Ingleside). Conversely, 94114, Noe & Eureka Valleys, had less than 1% of the city’s foreclosure sales.

All data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error, omission or revision and not warranted. Medians and averages are generalities which can fluctuate dramatically and do not necessarily reflect values or changes in value for specific properties.


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