Analyst Predicts Dallas home prices to turn positive next summer!

Posted by Emily Ray-Porter Group on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009 at 8:48am.

Analyst: Dallas-Fort Worth home prices to turn positive next summer

07:30 AM CDT on Friday, October 30, 2009
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
stevebrown@dallasnews.com

The long run of declines in Dallas-Fort Worth home prices should turn positive next summer, an industry analyst said Thursday.

First American CoreLogic, a California-based housing and finance information firm, is forecasting that home prices around the country will bottom out by spring.

And in the D-FW area, prices should be slightly positive by August, the firm's economists predict.

"In August 2010, the index is projecting that 12-month appreciation for Dallas-Plano-Irving home prices will be 0.21 percent," First American's latest report said.

That compares with a 0.12 percent decline in home prices here in the 12 months ending August 2009, the analyst said.

First American's assessment of the D-FW home market is a little more positive than other local and national measures, which say prices here are down about 1 percent from a year ago.

But the research firm's assessment that residential values in North Texas will turn positive next year is in line with some other economists' forecasts.

Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic, said he expects home prices to "bounce around the bottom of the market in anticipation of a sustained recovery" nationwide.

"While the majority of house price declines appear to be behind us, there are still a number of economic and institutional factors that are working against a solid and sustainable turnaround in the housing sector," Fleming said in his latest report. "As the economic landscape continues to change, so, too, will our forecasts."

First American estimates that U.S. home prices are down more than 10 percent in August from a year earlier. The biggest declines have come in Nevada, down 24.43 percent, and Arizona, down 19.53 percent.

But in Texas, prices are off only 0.26 percent from a year ago.

Houston and Dallas were the best-performing markets that First American surveyed in August.

Metro areas ranked by best appreciation between August 2008 and August 2009.

1. Houston-area: 2.03%

2. Dallas: -0.12%

3. Boston -3.97%

4. Philadelphia: -5.22%

5. Washington, D.C.: -5.28%

6. Atlanta: -8.22%

7. New York: -11.72%

8. Chicago: -12.5%

9. Los Angeles: -14.02%

10.Miami: -16.82%

SOURCE: First American CoreLogic

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