March 2012

From Mark J Perry blog Professor of Economics  University of Michigan.

1. The number of homes sold in the Las Vegas area (4,240) rose to the highest level for a February in six years, with new-home transactions at a four-year high and resale activity the strongest since 2005.

2. Total February sales were 11.5% higher than the average number of homes sold in that month since 1994, while resale activity was 52.7% above average for a February.

3. In February, 3,744 existing homes resold (excludes newly built homes), up 5.1% year-over-year. It was the 14th consecutive month in which resales have posted an annual gain, and marked the highest number of February resales since 3,875 sold in February 2005.

4. Cash buyers purchased 52.9% of the Las Vegas-area

Mortgage rates remained volatile this week, mostly due to shifting expectations about future Fed action. Early in the week, mortgage rates continued last week's move higher. Comments from Fed officials helped them recover their losses later in the week, though, and they ended the week slightly lower.

While the Fed does not control mortgage rates directly, it's important to remember that the Fed maintains an enormous influence. Mortgage rates are largely determined by mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices. One primary reason why MBS have performed so poorly since last week's Fed statement is clear. To boost the economy after the financial crisis, the Fed has taken extreme actions, including the purchase of enormous quantities of MBS, called quantitative

What began as a quiet week quickly turned negative following the release of Tuesday's Fed announcement. Mixed economic data and Treasury auctions had little impact. Mortgage rates ended the week significantly higher.

While it was very similar to the last statement, the Fed announcement reflected some degree of improvement in the economy. This caused investors to reduce expectations for further Fed easing through purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The chance that the Fed would produce enormous additional demand had helped propel MBS prices to their recent highs, so this news caused investors to sell MBS. The statement also acknowledged that rising energy prices will lead to higher short-term inflation. Investor concern that this will produce

Overall, the economic data came in pretty close to expectations this week, and Greece successfully reached a debt deal with private bondholders. With a lack of surprises in the economic news, mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged.

While it was a little stronger than expected, the important monthly Employment report had little impact on mortgage rates. Against a consensus forecast of 200K, the economy added 227K jobs in February, and revisions to prior months added an additional 61K jobs. The Unemployment Rate remained at 8.3%, as expected. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, increased at a 1.9% annual rate. With gains above 200K for the first three months of the year, the recent pickup in job growth and the decline in Jobless Claims

Is the timing right for new condo construction? I would have to say yes!!!

Santa Clara this month has hit a low point for real estate. That is they have hit 70% of what the Condo market was at this time last year. From 1,329 in Feb. of 2011 to on 388 in Feb. 2012

With the low inventory are the builders actually starting to come around. Take a great example of a complex that had been put on perma hold during rougher times. The location of an old Sony plant at the corner of Tasman and Zanker. Some call this the golden triangle because of all the tech jobs and tech companies that are in the area.

There has been some movement on this site that has stood stagnant for so long. As I type there is earth moving equipment and construction trucks outside.

No one

It was a volatile week for mortgage rates, reacting to mixed economic data and unexpected comments from Fed Chief Bernanke. The various influences roughly offset each other, though, and mortgage rates ended the week essentially unchanged.

Testifying before Congress on Wednesday, Fed Chief Bernanke caused a swift move higher in mortgage rates. His comments lowered investor expectations for a third round of Treasury bond and MBS purchases. The possibility for additional demand from the Fed has lifted MBS markets over recent months, and those gains were partially reversed after Bernanke's speech. As the economic data has improved in recent months, the need for additional Fed easing has seemed to decrease, but this week's testimony was seen by many investors